This book seeks to identify the forces which explain how and why some parts of the world have grown rich and others have lagged behind. Encompassing 2000 years of history, Part 1begins with the Roman Empire and explores the key factors that have influenced economic development in Africa, Asia, the Americas and Europe. Part 2 covers the development of macroeconomic tools of analysis from the 17th century to the present. Part 3 looks to the future and considers what the shape of the world economy might be in 2030. Combining both the close quantitative analysis with a more qualitative approach that takes into account the complexity of the forces at work, Contours of the World Economy provides students with a totally fascinating overview of world economic history. Written by a pioneer in the quantitative and macroeconomic analysis of economic history, this book combines qualitative histories with quantitative data. It also seeks a new understanding of the forces of economic growth and development by taking the ultimate long view - the whole of the last millennium - and looking to the future. List of Figures viii List of Tables ix List of Boxes xiii Acknowledgements xiv Introduction and Summary 1(1) The Contours of World Development 2(3) The History of Macro-Measurement 5(1) The Shape of Things to Come 6(5) PART I Contours of World Development, 1-2003AD The Roman Empire and its Economy 11(58) Introduction 11(2) Key Characteristics Accounting for Roman Success in Empire Building 13(4) Conquest of the Italian Peninsula, 396-191BC 17(1) The Empire Building Process 18(12) The Disintegration of the Empire 30(2) Roman Demography 32(11) Roman Income 43(17) Endnotes 60(2) Bibliography 62(7) The Resurrection of Western Europe and the Transformation of the Americas 69(42) Why and When did the West Get Rich? 69(4) The Driving Forces that Explain the Acceleration in Western Growth since 1820 73(1) Changes in the Structure of Demand and Employment 74(13) The European Transformation of the Americas, 1500-1820 87(18) Endnotes 105(3) References 108(3) The Interaction Between Asia and the West, 1500-2003 111(72) European-Asian Interaction from 1500 to 1820 112(3) The Impact of Asian Trade on Europe, 1500-1820 115(1) The Impact of Europe on Asia, 1500-1820 116(62) Endnotes 178(1) References 179(4) The Impact of Islam and Europe on African Development: 1-2003AD 183(66) Introduction 183(2) The European Impact on North Africa Before the Seventh Century 185(3) The Islamic Conquest and its Implications 188(5) Egypt as an Islamic State 193(13) The Maghreb and the Initiation of Trans-Saharan Trade in Gold and Slaves 206(3) The Changing Character of Moroccan Dynasties and their Interaction with Europe and Black Africa 209(5) Black Africa and the Impact of Islam 214(3) The European Encounter with Africa 217(10) Africa from 1820 to 1960 227(4) Post-Colonial Africa, 1960 Onwards 231(6) Appendix: The Crusades 1096-1270 237(2) Endnotes 239(1) References 240(9) PART II Advances in Macro-Measurement Since 1665 Political Arithmeticians and Historical Demographers: The Pioneers of Macro-Measurement 249(45) William Petty (1623-87) 250(6) John Graunt: The First Demographer (1620-74) 256(2) Gregory King (1648-1712) and Charles Davenant (1656-1714) 258(24) Patrick Colquhoun (1745-1820) 282(2) French Political Arithmetic, 1695-1707 284(3) Macro-Measurement in the Nineteenth and First Half of the Twentieth Century 287(1) Bibliography 288(6) Modern Macro-Measurement: How Far Have We Come? 294(41) Development of Macro-Measurement as a Tool of Economic Policy since 1950 295(6) Quantifying and Interpreting World Economic Growth from 1820 Onwards 301(6) Economic Performance in the Merchant Capitalist Epoch: 1500-1820 307(8) The Roots of Modernity: `Takeoff' or Long Apprenticeship 315(1) Appendices 316(5) Endnotes 321(2) Bibliography 323(12) PART III The Shape of Things to Come The World Economy in 2030 335(52) Projections of Population and Changes in Demographic Characteristics 335(3) Assumptions Underlying the Projections of Per Capita GDP 338(9) The Relationship Between Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, Carbon Emissions, and Global Warming 347(13) The Impact of Climate Change 360(2) The Kyoto Protocol 362(1) The Report of the House of Lords on Climate Change 362(1) The Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change 363(3) Conclusions on Global Warming 366(1) Appendix 367(2) Endnotes 369(1) Bibliography 370(5) Appendices Statistical Appendix A 375(9) Statistical Appendix B: Ingredients of Growth Accounts in Japan, UK, and USA, 1820-2003 384(3) Index 387