Reveals what sort of wars will dominate the political agenda in the near future, by investigating current trends in military power and looking where they are leading How the wars of the near future will be fought and who will win them List of Tables and Figures 9 List of Illustrations 11 Preface 13 Introduction: The Plot 19 PART ONE BASICS Chapter one Back to the Future 29 On War and Warfare Perils of Prediction Continuities and Discontinuities Chapter two Context, Context, Context 55 A War-prone Future The Political Driver Society and Culture Chapter three Technology and War 98 Technophiles and Technophobes From RMA to Transformation PART TWO WARFARE IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY Chapter four Grand Narratives of War, 1800-2100 131 The Rise and Fall of Total War The Obsolescence of Major Interstate War 'Old Wars' and 'New Wars', into the Fourth Generation A New Security Agenda Geopolitics Revolutions in Military Affairs (RMAs) Technology The Expanding Geography of War Terrorism Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) The Decline of War History: Our Past is Our Future Chapter five Regular Warfare 168 Varieties of Warfare Yesterday's Problem? Wars Between States Dilemmas of a Defence Planner The Shape of Things to Come Chapter six Irregular Warfare and Terrorism 212 An Old Story Meets Post-modernity An Asymmetrical Future Terrorism as Irregular Warfare Irregular Regulars Chapter seven Old Rules for New Challenges I: Weapons of Mass Destruction 255 Silver Bullets and Combined Arms Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Nuclear Weapons Biological Weapons Chemical Weapons A Strategic Perspective Chapter eight Old Rules for New Challenges II: Warfare in Space and Cyberspace 291 Theory for New Geography Clausewitz in Orbit Cyberwarfare is Still Warfare PART THREE TAMING THE BEAST Chapter nine The Control of Wars 333 Is War Useful? Grand Solutions, or Ventures in Futility How Are Wars Controlled? Treatments that Work (Sometimes) Conclusions: A Warlike Future: The Long-running Story 370 Coping with Ignorance Themes The Argument References 399 Bibliography of works cited 405 Index 421