Scenario planning allows companies to move away from linear thinking and better understand external change. Eight years (and 30,000 copies) after publication Scenarios is still acknowledged as the definitive work in the field. Now, Kees van der Heijden brings his bestseller up to date, following up on his original case studies and adding significant new material. The Second Edition changes focus slightly by providing more in-depth analysis and application of the concept of the 'strategic conversation'. While maintaining the underlying rigour of the first edition, van der Heijden revisits the text to make it far more practical and accessible, and in doing so gives you the tools you need to set out and negotiate a successful future course for your organization in the face of significant uncertainty. Eight years (and 30,000 copies) after publication Scenarios is still acknowledged as the definitive work in the scenario planning field. Now, Kees van der Heijden brings his bestseller up to date, following up on the original case studies and adding significant new material. Preface ix PART ONE: The Context 1(50) 1. 1965 to 1990: Five Discoveries at Shell 3(8) 2. Introduction to Scenario-teased Planning 11(10) 3. Three Competing Paradigms in Strategic Management 21(30) PART TWO: The Principles of Scenario-based Planning 51(102) 4. Strategising 53(10) 5. The Business Idea of an Organisation 63(28) 6. The Uncertain Environment 91(22) 7. Scenario Analysis 113(18) 8. Scenarios and the Strategic Conversation 131(22) PART THREE: The Practice of Scenario-based Planning 153(136) 9. The Practitioner's Art 155(38) 10. Articulation of the Business Idea 193(16) 11. Competitive Positioning 209(10) 12. Scenario Development 219(54) 13. Option Planning 273(16) PART FOUR: Institutionalising Scenario-based Planning 289(54) 14. The Management of Change 291(8) 15. Planning Process 299(24) 16. The Informal Strategic Conversation 323(20) Conclusion 343(4) References 347(4) Index 351