Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. Foreword (Lawrence D. Phillips)      Preface            Chapter 1 Introduction           Chapter 2 How people make decisions involving multiple objectives         Chapter 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART Chapter 4 Decisions involving multiple objectives: alternatives to SMART Chapter 5 Introduction to probability            Chapter 6 Decision making under uncertainty          Chapter 7 Decision trees and influence diagrams     Chapter 8 Applying simulation to decision problems           Chapter 9 Revising judgments in the light of new information        Chapter 10 Heuristics and biases in probability assessment Chapter 11 Methods for eliciting probabilities         Chapter 12 Risk and uncertainty management          Chapter 13 Decisions involving groups of individuals         Chapter 14 Resource allocation and negotiation problems   Chapter 15 Decision framing and cognitive inertia  Chapter 16 Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty       Chapter 17 Combining scenario planning with decision analysis Chapter 18 Alternative decision-support systems and conclusions  Suggested answers to selected questions       Index