The fundamental futures reference, updated for the new market A Complete Guide to the Futures Market is an incredibly comprehensive guide to futures and options trading. With the most encyclopedic examination of fundamental and technical analysis available, this resource is helpful for beginners and advanced traders alike. For Amazon customers: The new version of the book, printed on higher quality paper, is now available to purchase. The essential futures market reference guide A Complete Guide to the Futures Market is the comprehensive resource for futures traders and analysts. Part One: Preliminaries Chapter 1: For Beginners Only Purpose of This Chapter The Nature of Futures Markets Delivery Contract Specifications Volume and Open Interest Hedging Trading Types of Orders Commissions and Margins Tax Considerations Chapter 2: The Great Fundamental versus Technical Analysis Debate Part Two: Chart Analysis and Technical Indicators Chapter 3: Charts: Forecasting Tool or Folklore? Chapter 4: Types of Charts Bar Charts Linked Contract Series: Nearest Futures Versus Continuous Futures Close-Only Charts Point and Figure Charts Candlestick Charts Chapter 5: Linking Contracts for Long-Term Chart Analysis: Nearest versus Continuous Futures The Necessity of Linked-Contract Charts Methods of Creating Linked-Contract Charts Nearest Versus Continuous Futures in Chart Analysis Conclusion Chapter 6: Trends Defining Trends by Highs and Lows TD Lines Internal Trend Lines Moving Averages Chapter 7: Trading Ranges Trading Ranges: Trading Considerations Trading Range Breakouts Chapter 8: Support and Resistance Trading Ranges Prior Major Highs and Lows Concentrations of Relative Highs and Relative Lows Trend Lines, Channels, and Internal Trend Lines Price Envelope Bands Chapter 9: Chart Patterns One-Day Patterns Continuation Patterns Top and Bottom Formations Chapter 10: Is Chart Analysis Still Valid? Chapter 11: Technical Indicators What Is an Indicator? The Basic Indicator Calculations Comparing Indicators Moving Average Types Oscillators and Trading Signals Indicator Myths Indicator Types Conclusion Part III: Applying Chart Analysis to Trading Chapter 12: Midtrend Entry and Pyramiding Chapter 13: Choosing Stop-Loss Points Chapter 14: Setting Objectives and Other Position Exit Criteria Chart-Based Objectives Measured Move Rule of Seven Support and Resistance Levels Overbought/Oversold Indicators Demark Sequential Contrary Opinion Trailing Stops Change of Market Opinion Chapter 15: The Most Important Rule in Chart Analysis Failed Signals Bull and Bear Traps False Trend-Line Breakouts Return to Spike Extremes Return to Wide-Ranging Day Extremes Counter-to-Anticipated Breakout of Flag or Pennant Opposite Direction Breakout of Flag or Pennant Following a Normal Breakout Penetration of Top and Bottom Formations Breaking of Curvature The Future Reliability of Failed Signals Conclusion Part IV: Trading Systems and Performance Measurement Chapter 16: Technical Trading Systems: Structure and Design The Benefits of a Mechanical Trading System Three Basic Types of Systems Trend-Following Systems Ten Common Problems with Standard Trend-Following Systems Possible Modifications for Basic Trend-Following Systems Countertrend Systems Diversification Ten Common Problems with Trend-Following Systems Revisited Chapter 17: Examples of Original Trading Systems The Wide-Ranging Day System Run Day Breakout System Run Day Consecutive Count System Conclusion Chapter 18: Selecting the Best Futures Price Series for System Testing Actual Contract Series Nearest Futures Constant-Forward ( Perpetual ) Series Continuous (Spread-Adjusted) Price Series Comparing the Series Conclusion Chapter 19: Testing and Optimizing Trading Systems The Well-Chosen Example1 Basic Concepts and Definitions Choosing the Price Series Choosing the Time Period Realistic Assumptions Optimizing Systems The Optimization Myth Testing Versus Fitting The Truth about Simulated Results Multimarket System Testing Negative Results Steps in Constructing and Testing a Trading System Observations about Trading Systems Chapter 20: How to Evaluate Past Performance Why Return Alone Is Meaningless Risk-Adjusted Return Measures Visual Performance Evaluation Investment Insights Part V: Fundamental Analysis Chapter 21: Fourteen Popular Fallacies, or What Not to Do Wrong Five Short Scenes The Fourteen Fallacies Chapter 22: Supply/Demand Analysis: Basic Economic Theory Supply And Demand Defined The Problem Of Quantifying Demand Understanding The Difference Between Consumption And Demand The Need To Incorporate Demand Possible Methods For Incorporating Demand Why Traditional Fundamental Analysis Doesn t Work In The Gold Market Chapter 23: Types of Fundamental Analysis The Old Hand Approach The Balance Table The Analogous Season Method Regression Analysis Index Models Chapter 24: The Role of Expectations Using Prior-Year Estimates Rather Than Revised Statistics Adding Expectations As A Variable In The Price-Forecasting Model The Influence Of Expectations On Actual Statistics Defining New-Crop Expectations Chapter 25: Incorporating Inflation Chapter 26: Seasonal Analysis The Concept of Seasonal Trading Cash Versus Futures Price Seasonality The Role of Expectations Is It Real or Is It Probability? Calculating a Seasonal Index Chapter 27: Analyzing Market Response Evaluating Market Response for Repetitive Events Chapter 28: Building a Forecasting Model: A Step-by-Step Approach Chapter 29: Fundamental Analysis and Trading Fundamental versus Technical Analysis: A Greater Need for Caution Three Major Pitfalls in Fundamental Analysis Combining Fundamental Analysis with Technical Analysis and Money Management Why Bother with Fundamentals? Are Fundamentals Instantaneously Discounted? Fitting rhe News to Price Moves Fundamental Developments: Long-Term Implications versus Short-Term Response Summary Part IV: Futures Spreads and Options Chapter 30: The Concepts and Mechanics of Spread Trading Introduction Spreads Definition and Basic Concepts Why Trade Spreads? Types of Spreads The General Rule The General Rule Applicability and Non Applicability Spread Rather than Outright An Example The Limited-Risk Spread The Spread Trade Analysis and Approach Pitfalls and Points of Caution Chapter 31: Intercommodity Spreads: Determining Contract Ratios Chapter 32: Spread Trading in Stock Index Futures Intramarket Stock Index  Spreads Intermarket Stock Index Spreads Chapter 33: Spread Trading in Currency Futures Intercurrency Spreads Intracurrency Spreads Chapter 34: An Introduction to Options on Futures Preliminaries Factors That Determine Option Premiums Theoretical Versus Actual Option Premiums Delta (The Neutral Hedge Ratio) Chapter 35: Option Trading Strategies Comparing Trading Strategies Profit/Loss Profiles for Key Trading Strategies Choosing an Optimal Strategy Hedging Applications Part VII: Practical Trading Guidelines Chapter 36: The Planned Trading Approach Step One: Define a Trading Philosophy Step Two: Choose Markets to Be Traded Step Three: Specify Risk Control Plan1 Step Four: Establish a Planning Time Routine Step Five: Maintain a Trader s Spreadsheet Step Six: Maintain a Trader s Diary Step Seven: Analyze Personal Trading Chapter 37: Seventy-Five Trading Rules and Market Observations Entering Trades Exiting Trades and Risk Control (Money Management) Other Risk-Control (Money Management) Rules Holding and Exiting Winning Trades Miscellaneous Principles a Analysis and Review Chapter 38: Market Wiz(ar)dom Appendix A: Introduction to Regression Analysis Basics Meaning of Best Fit A Practical Example Reliability of the Regression Forecast Appendix B: A Review of Elementary Statistics Measures of Dispersion Probability Distributions Reading the Normal Curve (Z) Table Populations and Samples Estimating The Population Mean and Standard Deviation from the Sample Statistics Sampling Distribution Central Limit Theorem Standard Error of the Mean Confidence Intervals The t-Test Appendix C: Checking the Significance of the Regression Equation The Population Regression Line Basic Assumptions Of Regression Analysis Testing The Significance Of The Regression Coefficients Standard Error Of The Regression Confidence Interval For An Individual Forecast Extrapolation Coefficient Of Determination (R2) Spurious ( Nonsense ) Correlations Appendix D: The Multiple Regression Model Basics of Multiple Regression Applying The T-Test in the Multiple Regression Model Standard Error of the Regression Confidence Intervals for an Individual Forecast R2 And Corrected R2 F-Test Analzying a Regression Run Appendix E: Analyzing the Regression Equation Outliers The Residual Plot Autocorrelation Defined The Durbin-Watson Statistic as a Measure of Autocorrelation The Implications of Autocorrelation Missing Variables and Time Trend Dummy Variables Multicollinearity Addendum: Advanced Topics Heteroscedasticity Appendix F: Practical Considerations in Applying Regression Analysis Determining the Dependent Variable Selecting the Independent Variables Should the Preforecast Period Price Be Included? Choosing the Length of the Survey Period Sources of Forecast Error Simulation Stepwise Regression Sample Step-By-Step Regression Procedure Summary References and Recommended Readings Index