STAY A STEP AHEAD OF THE MARKETS BY REJECTING GUESSES ABOUT THE FUTURE AND TRUSTING TECHNIQUES THAT WORKToday there are as many investment opinions as there are people. But as many a scorned investor can attest, predicting the future isn't easy. STAY A STEP AHEAD OF THE MARKETS BY REJECTING GUESSES ABOUT THE FUTURE AND TRUSTING TECHNIQUES THAT WORK Today there are as many investment opinions as there are people. But as many a scorned investor can attest, predicting the future isn't easy. Foreword Preface Acknowledgments Chapter 1: Being Right or Making Money Ned Davis Bad News about Forecasting (Being Right) Good News About Making Money Being Right and Other Investment Techniques Are Overrated and Are Not the Keys to Success The Four Real Keys to Making Money The Battle for Investment Survival and Handling Mistakes Stories of Five Successful Winners Making Our Own Reality The Ned Davis Research Response to All This Timing Models What Is Contrary Opinion and How to Use It History and Risk Management The Rest of the Book Chapter 2: the Model-Building Process N ed Davis The Model-Building Process Where to Start: Model Inputs Sentiment/Valuation Indicators Monetary Indicators Economic Indicators Internal Indicators Moving Averages Crossings and Slopes Momentum Putting Indicators Together Conclusion Chapter 3: a Stock Market Model Loren Flath A Stock Market Model Overview of the Fab Five Tape Component Reverse Brackets The Final Tape Component The Sentiment Component Sentiment Summary The Monetary Model The Birth of Dynamic Brackets Monetary Component Summary Fab Five Combo Component Combo Model Summary Summing Up the Fab Five How We Use the Fab Five Chapter 4: A Simple Model for Bonds Loren Flath A Slight Modification Summary Chapter 5: Potential Bear Market in 2014, Bearish Secular Residue and Then Buying Opportunity Ned Davis Preparing for a (Say 20 percent Percent) Bear Market Sentiment and Valuation Indicators, If One Wanted to Be Bearish Other Sentiment Indicators Valuation Problems Trend Indicators to Plan for a Potential Pullback – Follow the Leaders More Leading Indicators of Market Peaks Four-Year Presidential Cycle Risks Macro Backdrop - Debt Bubble Update Watching Fed Policy to Prepare for a Major Pullback in 2014 What Do Demographics Say? Chapter 6: The Aging World: Economic and Market Implications Alejandra Grindal Global Population View Why Is the Population Getting Older? Demographic Developments Implications of Aging Populations Ways to Offset a Declining Workforce Conclusion Chapter 7: United States Energy Independence – A Game-Changer John LaForge What the United States Consumes The Thorn in the Side of Energy Independence — Oil & Transportation Choosing the Right Fuel Why Electric Could Be a Game-Changer Why Electric Has Yet to Take Off How Far Ned Could Go Nat Gas - an Indirect Play on Electric The Immediate Impact of Abundant U.S. Energy Resources A Potential Headache for the U.S. Manufacturing Resurgence Conclusion About the Authors Index